| 標題 Title |
澳門2018年經濟分析及2019年經濟預測 2018 Economic Analysis and 2019 Forecast for Macau |
|---|---|
| 作者 Author |
陳志誠，關鋒，何偉雄，廖振華 CHAN Chi Shing, KWAN Fung, HO Wai Hong, LIU Chun Wah |
| 摘要 Abstract |
澳門作為一個微型開放經濟體，容易受外部環境衝撃。澳門經濟增長在2018年上半年強勁，但隨着中國經濟增長放緩，澳門經濟增長在下半年急速下跌。各種不穩定因素持續影響澳門2019年的經濟增長，根據“澳門宏觀經濟模型”，整體而言，本地生產總值在2019年，預計增長2.8%，澳門服務及貨物出口温和增長，內部需求方面，私人消費持續穩定，但投資仍然下跌。澳門通脹維持平穩，而就業市場持續緊張，失業率維持在低水平。
Being a small open economy, Macau is easily affected by external environment. Macau’s economy has grown substantially in the first half of 2018. The growth subdued rapidly in the second half amid the slowdown in Mainland China. Economic uncertainty continues to affect Macau’s economic growth in 2019. According to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macau, Macau’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.8%. Macau’s exports of goods and services are expected to grow modestly. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending is expected to grow steadily, but total investment continues to decline. Inflation is expected to be stable. The labour market continues to be tight and unemployment rate is forecast to be low. |
| 關鍵詞 Keywords |
澳門，經濟預測，宏觀經濟 Macau, Economic forecast, Macroeconomic |
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