中國智庫對粵港澳大灣區政策規劃影響力的研究 —— 基於221 家中國智庫數據的實證分析

Using data from 221 Chinese think tanks, this article examines the factors shaping the influence of national top-ranked think tanks, provincial- and municipal-level academies of social sciences and university-based think tanks on policy planning for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The analysis combines negative binomial regression with qualitative comparative analysis. Findings reveal that think tanks located within the Greater Bay Area significantly strengthen their decision-making, social, and academic influence. The administrative rank of think tank leaders emerges as a critical determinant of influence across these three dimensions. Furthermore, larger think tanks are more likely to achieve social and decision-making influence, while the economic development level of the host region positively affects social influence. The study further highlights the complexity of causal interactions among multiple factors in shaping think tank influence. For think tanks outside the Greater Bay Area, the interplay between leaders’ tenure and other conditions plays a pivotal role. Finally, the use of a broader and more diverse dataset improves the unbiasedness of the findings and enriches understanding of how think tanks shape regional policy planning.