標題
Title
延續與差異:以當選立法會議員的組別背景和區域性得票為視角
Stability and Variance: A Study of Group Affiliations of Candidate Groups and Regional Distribution of Votes of Elected Legislative Assembly Members
作者
Author
蔡永君,何偉鴻
TSOI Weng Kuan, HO Wai Hong
摘要
Abstract
以2013、2017 和2021 年立法會當選議員組別背景為視角,本文利用各組別在不同區域獲得的有效票數,計算標準化發生比(Standardized Incidence Ratio, SIR),並且側重以本屆(2021 年)當選組別為對象,分析和比較當選組別在各區域的“吸票”能力, 瞭解各組別的得票是否具有區域性差異,以及有關“吸票”能力和競爭力是否具持續性, 藉以探討不同社經背景選民在投票取向上與候選組別背景的關係。本文發現在現時各候選組別政綱仍大致相近的情形下,不同組別在各區的得票情況大相徑庭,而選民投票取向與組別性質背景具有一定的連繫性,但未能確定具強烈的關係,同時,在區域的“吸票”能力和競爭力分佈上則保持較高的穩定性。

From the perspective of group affiliation of elected legislative assembly members (2013, 2017 and 2021), this paper adopts numbers of valid votes in various areas in order to calculate the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) for individual elected groups. It aims to investigate the difference of competiveness in gaining votes by groups with distinct affiliations in regional perspective, so as to manifest the possible relationship between the socio-economic backgrounds of voters and electoral group affiliation. In addition, the paper also discusses the duration and trend of the competiveness in gaining votes. It is found that in the circumstance that the political platforms of competing groups are still in much similarity. Though there is huge regional divergence among groups in gaining votes, it cannot be confirmed that group affiliation casts a very strong effect on voting behavior. Nevertheless, from the observation throughout the years, the competitiveness of groups in gaining votes among different districts has remained in much stability.

關鍵詞
Keywords
立法會選舉,組別背景,區域性得票
Legislative Assembly election, Group affiliation, Regional distribution of votes
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