從日常活動理論看新冠疫情對澳門犯罪的影響

The COVID-19 pandemic has a profound impact on all aspects of Macao society, and crimes are no exception. Although many studies have been conducted globally on how COVID-19 affects crimes, we know little about the situation in Macao. Using data collected from official crime statistics, interview data, and media data mining, this paper reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crimes in Macao. Under the pandemic, crimes in Macao dropped to a new low since the handover, with a significant decrease in gaming-related and traditional street crimes. However, specific crime types such as cyber-frauds, erotic frauds involving nude chatting and crimes emanating from epidemic prevention measures rose significantly within the same period. Routine activity theory is applied to explain the pandemic’s effect on crimes in Macao from three analytical points: motivated offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians. The study finds that the pandemic reduced the conventional opportunities for the convergence of potential offenders and victims; gaming-related cases dwindled under the waning gaming industry; and social distancing partially transformed the convergence of the three elements of crimes from offline to online, which led to cybercrime cases growing exponentially. This study not only contributes to a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on crime globally, but also enriches the knowledge of the impact of the gaming industry on crimes in Macao through the pseudo-natural experiment of the pandemic. Finally, this study serves as a theoretically informed reference point for future policymaking on crime prevention.