博彩業外生衝擊對澳門金融安全的影響

The Macao SAR is a micro-economy with gaming industry as the only dominant industry, and the gaming industry is a capital-intensive industry, which is bound to have a significant impact on the financial security of the Macao SAR. This paper first adopts the financial stability indicators for 2010-2019 quarterly data compiled by the Macao Monetary Authority in accordance with Basel III, uses the principal component analysis method to construct the Financial Safety Index and sets an early warning interval. The main conclusions are as follows. During this period, the Financial Safety Index in Macao sharply fluctuated from falling to rising and then falling. Then VAR model is used to estimate the impact of gaming industry on financial security. Gross gaming revenue, gaming tax, ratios of gross gaming revenue to GDP and of gaming tax to public finance are the Granger reasons for financial safety in Macao, and the fluctuations of these four indicators have various degrees of impact on financial security. The impact of the gaming industry on financial security is mainly manifested in the negative impact caused by changes in gross gaming income and the positive impact caused by changes in gaming taxes.