標題
Title
回歸後的澳門經濟:經濟增長、勞動市場的發展和經濟多元化
Macao’s Economy after the Handover: Economic Growth, Labour Market Development and Economic Diversification
作者
Author
陳志誠,關鋒
CHAN Chi Shing, KWAN Fung
摘要
Abstract
本文探討回歸後澳門經濟增長、勞動市場和經濟多元化的情況。澳門作為一個小型開放經濟體,其增長探受外圍因素影響。過去二十五年澳門經濟的升跌波幅驚人,而且轉變迅速。要減低經濟波動所帶來的不確定性,實行產業多元化,減少依賴特定行業,是澳門其中一個發展方向。但勞動力問題限制新興行業的快速發展,令它們只能佔澳門經濟一小部分。澳門的多元化道路似乎是在以主導行業(博彩)通過分享資源和分攤成本下拉動其他行業的發展,這種以博彩業之協同效應推動的橫向多元選擇似乎在澳門過去二十五年的增長經驗得到初步的實證結果。目前澳門面對最大挑戰是如何讓增長的格局導出產業的某程度多樣化,使經濟增長的道路走得更穩健。澳門宜借鑑研究其他小型開放型經濟體選取支柱行業之邏輯和運作經驗,制定合適產業政策鼓勵扶持新的主導行業發展,通過區域合作在博彩繼續帶動經濟發展的同時,逐步提供其他行業生存和發展的空間,務使澳門的發展在增長和穩定中達到中長期的平衡。

This article explores Macao’s economic growth, labour market and economic diversification after the handover. As a small open economy, Macao’s growth is deeply affected by external factors. The ups and downs of Macao’s economy over the past 25 years have been astonishing and the changes have been rapid. To reduce the uncertainty caused by economic fluctuations, economic diversification and reducing reliance on specific industries is one of Macao’s development directions. However, labour problems limit the rapid development of emerging industries, causing them to account for only a small part of Macao’s economy. Macao’s diversification path seems to be based on the leading industry (gaming) driving the development of other industries by sharing resources and cost sharing. This horizontal diversification choice driven by the synergy of the gaming industry seems to be the Macao’s growth experience in the past 25 years. The biggest challenge facing Macao at present is how to introduce a certain degree of diversification of industries from the growth pattern, so as to make the path of economic growth more stable. Macao should learn from the logic and operational experience of other small open economies in selecting industries, formulate appropriate industrial policies to encourage and support the development of new leading industries, and gradually provide for the survival and development of other industries while gaming continues to drive economic development through regional cooperation. This will ensure that Macao’s development achieves a mid- to long-term balance in growth and stability.

關鍵詞
Keywords
澳門回歸,經濟增長,勞動市場,經濟多元化,澳門博彩業,主導行業
Macao’s handover, economic growth, labour market, economic diversification, Macao’s gaming industry, leading industry
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