標題
Title		 澳門風暴潮災害風險評估
Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Flooding in Macao
作者
Author		 鄭慧敏，施華斌，陸萬海
ZHENG Hui Min, SHI Huabin, LOK Man Hoi
摘要
Abstract		 由於全球變暖導致海平面上升，沿海城市面臨的風暴潮災害風險越來越高。澳門是一個小型、高度城市化、人口密集的沿海城市，特別容易受到颱風和風暴潮的影響。2017年颱風“天鴿”在澳門附近的珠海登陸，造成澳門10人死亡，200多人受傷和15億美元的災難性損失；2018年颱風“山竹”也對澳門造成了嚴重的破壞。因此，評估風暴潮災害風險對澳門未來的防災減災至關重要。然而，尚未有對像澳門這樣的小型、高度城市化和人口密集的歷史城市面臨的風暴潮災害進行風險評估的報告。本文建立了澳門風暴潮災害風險評估指標體系，包括風暴潮危險性指標、社會脆弱性指標和承災能力指標，並確定了各指標的主觀、客觀和綜合權重。以颱風“天鴿”和“海高斯”分別作為極端強颱風與典型颱風的樣本進行風險評估，分別分析了兩場颱風導致的風暴潮對澳門23個統計區的風暴潮災害的危險等級、脆弱等級和綜合風險等級，以幫助提高澳門海洋防災減災和應急管理水平，進一步完善城市規劃︒
Coastal cities are increasingly exposed to storm surges due to the rising sea level caused by global warming. As a small-scale, highly urbanized, and densely populated coastal city, Macao is particularly vulnerable to typhoons and storm surges. In 2017, Typhoon Hato landed at Zhuhai, causing disastrous losses of 10 deaths, more than 200 injuries, and US$1.5 billion in Macao. In 2018, Typhoon Mangkhut again caused serious damage to Macao. Therefore, assessing the risk due to storm surges is crucial to Macao’s future disaster prevention and reduction. However, there have been no reports on risk assessment of storm surges for a small-scale, highly urbanized and densely populated historical city like Macao. This paper establishes a storm surge disastrous risk assessment index system for Macao, including indicators of storm surge hazard, social vulnerability, and disaster resilience. The subjective, objective, and combined weights of each indicator are determined. The risks of storm surge hazard in Macao under Typhoon Hato and Higos, respectively taken as an example of extreme typhoons and typical typhoons, are assessed. The levels of hazard, vulnerability, and comprehensive risk of storm surge flooding in the 23 statistical areas of Macao are analyzed. This study aims to improve the prevention and mitigation of coastal disasters, emergency management, and future urban planning in Macao.
關鍵詞
Keywords		 澳門，風暴潮，災害風險評估
Macao, Storm surge, Risk assessment
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