澳門通貨膨脹與經濟增長的關係（2003—2018）

The paper selects 64 quarterly data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Through the establishment of a vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the ADF test, Granger causality test, impulse response, and analysis of variance are used to empirically study Macao. The results of the study are: (1)Inflation and economic growth show strong volatility. (2)There is no two-way equivalent intensity relationship between economic growth and inflation in Macao, but economic growth can enhance currency, indicating one-way relationship of the level of inflation. (3)The degree of inflation’s constraint on economic growth is relatively weak. Therefore, the Macao government should formulate two-way stable goals and specific means of moderate intervention in the economy based on the special relationship between local economic growth and inflation.