投票習慣、選舉競爭與投票率 ——基於第七屆澳門立法會選舉的實證研究

On 12 September 2021, the 7th Macao Legislative Assembly Election was successfully held, but the low turnout rate of direct elections has become the focus of public opinion. Current research findings on Macao elections are difficult to explain effectively, ignoring the effects of voting habits and election competition on turnout. Therefore, this paper uses quantitative research methods to investigate the effects of voting habits and electoral competition on the turnout rate of the 7th Macao Legislative Assembly direct election. This paper finds that the turnout rate of the 7th Legislative Assembly direct election is currently correlated with the overall competition and voting habits in the previous term, while the vote share of the “democratic camp” in the previous term has a significant negative effect on the turnout rate. Based on the actual development of electoral politics in Macao and the dialogue between electoral research theories, this paper argues that the relationship between electoral competition and political participation must be discussed in light of the effects of the electoral system and the actual situation of the region under analysis.