The Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2026. The research team projects that Macao’s baseline real GDP growth will reach 6.3% in 2026, while the baseline forecasts for other key economic variables are as follows: exports of services up by 6.3%, private consumption expenditure up by 0.8%, inflation rate at 0.8%, overall unemployment rate at 1.8%, unemployment rate of Macao residents at 2.3%; and the Macao SAR government’s current revenue at MOP 123.7 billion.
In terms of external demand, visitor arrivals recorded a notable increase in 2025, reaching 40.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, surpassing the pre-COVID-19 level of 2019 and setting a record high. Among them, visitor arrivals from the Chinese mainland reached 29.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%; visitor arrivals from Hong Kong totalled 7.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; while visitor arrivals from other regions reached 3.75 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. Notably, same-day visitors were the main source of growth, increasing by 25.6% for the year, while overnight visitors saw a slight increase of 3.1%. With the rapid growth in visitor arrivals, exports of services also saw considerable growth. Exports of services in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 grew by 10.5% and 9.8% year-onyear in real terms, respectively. In the gaming sector, which is linked to exports of services, gross revenue from games of chance reached MOP 247.4 billion in 2025, representing a yearon-year increase of 9.1%, with VIP baccarat accounting for MOP 68 billion, or 27.5% of the total. In January 2026, gross revenue from games of chance reached MOP 22.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.0%.
Domestic demand, however, remains relatively weak. Private consumption grew by only 1.2%, 1.7%, 0.8%, and 1.1% year-on-year in real terms in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, respectively. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 3.9% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter, contract by 4.6% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter, and further decline by 26.1% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter, before rebounding by 0.9% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter.
Overall, Macao’s GDP reached MOP 103.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025, representing a real year-on-year growth of 8.0%, and MOP 115.4 billion in the fourth quarter, representing a real year-on-year growth of 7.6%. For 2025 as a whole, GDP stood at MOP 417.3 billion, marking a real year-on-year growth of 4.7%.
Price fluctuations were insignificant. The consumer price inflation rate in 2025 was only 0.3%, with food and non-alcoholic beverages, and housing and fuel—which carry significant weight in the index—recording inflation rates of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
The labour market remained stable. In 2025, the overall unemployment rate was 1.9% in both the first and second quarters, before easing to 1.8% in the third and fourth quarters. The unemployment rate of Macao residents was 2.5% in the first two quarters, falling to 2.4% in the third quarter and to 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Overall median monthly employment earnings were MOP 17,000 in the third quarter of 2025, which was lower than the MOP 18,000 recorded in the same period of 2024. However, this figure rebounded to MOP 17,300 in the fourth quarter. The median monthly employment earnings of local residents were MOP 20,000 in both the third and fourth quarters, which was slightly lower than the MOP 20,500 recorded in the third and fourth quarters of 2024.
In its January 2026 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support across different countries, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector adaptability offset trade policy shifts. In the Chinese mainland, the negative effects of structural adjustments and persistently weak expectations have led to a continued slowdown in the growth of total consumer spending and a contraction in fixed asset investment. Nevertheless, exports have gained momentum, and the large trade surplus may lead to trade friction and potentially slow export growth. Meanwhile, the central government is expected to further strengthen fiscal and monetary policies to boost private consumption and investment.
Under these circumstances, the baseline forecasts for the major economic variables for 2026 are as follows:
- Real GDP growth: 6.3%
- Growth in exports of services: 6.3%; contribution to real GDP growth: 5.15%#
- Growth in private consumption expenditure: 0.8%; contribution to real GDP growth: 0.23%#
- Growth in gross fixed capital formation: 1.2%; contribution to real GDP growth: 0.16%#
- GDP deflator growth rate: 0.4%
- Consumer price inflation rate: 0.8%
- Median monthly employment earnings growth rate: 0.9%
- Unemployment rate: 1.8%
- Unemployment rate of Macao residents: 2.3%
- The Macao SAR government’s current revenue: MOP 123.7 billion
#As these three expenditure items only constitute part of GDP, their combined contribution does not equal the real GDP growth rate
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 87 equations and 306 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. The research team is led by Kwan Fung, with members including Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, and Gary Wong Ka Kei. The project is now managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.