標題
Title
澳門的貨幣化水平、宏觀經濟指標與支柱行業的相關性研究
A Study on the Correlation between Monetization Level, Macroeconomic Indicators and Pillar Industry in Macau
作者
Author
齊蓮英,王森,李倩婷
QI Lianying, WANG Sen, LI Qianting
摘要
Abstract
本文選擇澳門2000-2017年的數據構建VAR模型,就經濟增長率、綜合消費物價指數及流通資金增長率指標與貨幣化水平的關係進行研究,並分析四大支柱行業佔比與貨幣化水平的相關性。結果表明:在短期內,貨幣化水平與經濟增長率、綜合消費物價指數呈反比關係,長期而言,影響程度逐漸減弱;貨幣化水平的波動主要受自身的衝擊影響;博彩業佔比與貨幣化水平呈顯著負相關關係。因此,產業結構適度多元化和穩定物價水平有利於提升澳門貨幣化水平。

The paper selects the data of Macau 2000-2017 to set up the VAR model, and studies the relationship between economic growth rate, comprehensive consumer price index, circulation capital growth rate index, monetization level, and analyzes the proportion of four pillar industries and monetization level. The results show that in the short term, the level of monetization is inversely related to economic growth rate and comprehensive consumer price index. In the long term, the degree of influence is gradually weakened; the fluctuation of the level of monetization is mainly affected by its own impact; the proportion of the gaming industry is significantly negatively correlated with the level of monetization. Therefore, a moderate diversification of the industrial structure and a stable price level are conducive to raising the level of monetization in Macau.

關鍵詞
Keywords
澳門,貨幣化,宏觀經濟,產業結構,VAR模型
Macau, Monetization, Macro economy, Industrial structure, VAR model
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